In the article “How to tell if your decision was a good one.” Dr.Howard says that to know if your decision is good it’s all in framing it correctly. It is all about being able to describe by numbers your ignorance and guess probabilities, which he agrees is very hard even to psychologists and economists. He explains about how coaches of football teams often choose illogical decisions based on how they believe the crowd will favor it, if they make a wrong decision the crowd and announcers berate them with hate and anger. The biggest people within the work industry (namely oil and gas companies) say that they decide their decision based on a simple graph of probabilities, if they see there is a fair chance of not failing they will take it, if it does happen to fail they remove the issue that was the biggest risk factor and do it again, “To consider simple failure as a bad choice is irrational and will only cause doubt between you and success.”

Daniel Kahnaman and Amos Tversky (two psychologists) have collected tons of experimental evidence showing that people struggle to assess probabilities and even expressing preference consistently. Gerd Gigerenzer and his academic allies have more recently identified some kind of decision where the simple rules of thumb deliver consistently better results than analytic style methods.

UC Berkeley economist David Romer found in 2006 that football teams go for points on their fourth down much less often then they would if they didn’t