Risk Forecasting
MB 509

Instructor: Raymond W. Ritch

Dates: June 2013 Session - (Monday Evenings 6 -9:20 p.m.) June 24, 2013 – 28 September, 2013 Credits: 4 Course Length: 12 Weeks + 2 non-class weeks (1 July & 2 September)

Textbook: Crouhy, M., Galai, D., Mark, R. (2005) The Essentials of Risk Management. McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0-07-142966-5 Assigned readings

Prerequisite: MA340 or equivalent

Course Description: Risk Forecasting exposes the student to contemporary theory and pragmatic approaches to projecting the possibility of risk and loss in business operations. This course presents Enterprise Risk Management with a focus on the business functions of finance, accounting, insurance, supply chain operations, and project management. Also included is crisis planning.

Objectives: 0 To provide students with an understanding of the contemporary process of forecasting risk.

1 To provide students with an understanding of how to identify possible loss and levels of exposure.

2 To provide students with the knowledge to conduct project management report sections relating to risk forecasting.

3 To provide students with a statistical understanding of quantizing risk and forecasting models.

4 To provide students with a knowledge of the preparation and delivery of oral presentations using presentation graphics and multimedia methods.

5 To provide students with the knowledge to clearly and effectively communicate an organization’s purpose, plans, and business strategies related to risk.
Instruction Methods: Lecture, in class discussion of case studies, Internet and database searching, and hands-on-experience with risk forecasting reports through small group projects.

Learning Activities and Procedures: * Class lecture and discussion centered on specific subject matter. You are expected to come prepared for class with assigned work completed in advance of class. * Papers and similar submissions involving research and organized presentations at the graduate level will be assigned. * Templates provided will aid in the completion of assigned Risk Management Plan. * Class presentations and discussions following the presentations. Students will be responsible for making a formal presentation of their written individual and group projects.

Evaluation:
Group projects, research papers, presentations, participation, will be assigned point values. Students’ final grades will be calculated on the number of points received based on the total number of points possible.
Grading: Total Grade 100 points A = 90 – 100 B = 80 – 89 C = 70 – 79 D = 60 – 69 F = 0 – 59

Assignments: * Templates. Each student will complete 5 templates applying researched and acquired data to demonstrate appropriate risk management application. These application may be used in the completion of Individual and Group Projects * Individual Project and Presentation. Each student is required to choose an industry activity and complete a risk management plan according to the requirements covered in class. Selected topic must be approved by the 3rd week of the class. * Individual Research paper (Written report, basis of presentation) should include a summary of the literature reviewed, application of the forecasting information acquired, practical implications, an executive summary (distributed to the class), and an annotated bibliography in an APA format. * Group Project. Each student will be required to participate in a research group and give a class presentation describing the application of Risk Forecasting techniques used in preparation of a Corporate Risk Management Plan during the 12th session of the class. Only one paper for the group will be prepared and submitted. APA format is required.

Out-of-Class Work Requirement: Students are expected to spend approximately