Which countries will be the next BRICs? We recently identified 11 countries that could rival the G7 over time, even if they lack the scale to become the next BRICs. Here we look at these ëNext 11í (N-11) in the context of several important BRICs themesóenergy, infrastructure, urbanisation, human capital and technology.
With the BRICs story largely having moved into the mainstream, we are often asked ëWho will be the next BRICs?í. While the N-11 may not have the same transformative impact on the world economy that the BRICs may realise, they nonetheless present interesting growth stories, and several countries in this group could rival the G7 in time. As laid out in our Global
Economics Paper No. 153, the N-11 include Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Korea,
Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam.
That paper, by Dominic Wilson and Anna Stupnytska, analyses the growth potential of the N-
11 and the conditions needed to realise that potential. Here, we assess their performance and prospects along a range of measures that we have discussed in other BRICs Monthly reports: energy, urbanisation, infrastructure, health and technology. Highlights include:
! The N-11, which comprise 7% of the world economy, account for 9% of the worldís energy consumption and an equal share of global CO2 emissions, well below the BRICsí 30% share of emissions.
! On the whole, the N-11 are already highly urbanised. In five, more than half the population is urban; some, including Korea, Mexico, Iran and Turkey, are roughly at G6 levels. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Vietnam and Bangladesh remain overwhelmingly rural (some
75%). Urbanisation in these countries should support economic growth, particularly by underpinning productivity growth, as has already been the case in China and is beginning to materialise in India.
! Some of the N-11 are attractive destinations for infrastructure investment. Four (Mexico,
Philippines, Indonesia and Turkey) saw nearly $170bn invested in infrastructure projects between 1990