Course Topic #3 Some Econometrics (1) “Variable trends in economic time series,” (Stock and Watson, 1988) http://www.princeton.edu/~mwatson/papers/Stock_Watson_JEP_1988.pdf Figure 1 motivates discussion of “Long run trends” and “Cyclical fluctuations” around those trends. Notice that long run trends can vary over time and may be associated with the turning points evident in the cyclical fluctuations. What is a “Variable Trend”? [see discussion] Footnote 2, pp. 151-152 Skip…
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