Forms of peacekeeping I: From prevention to enforcement
Preventive deployment: * There are two logics: * 1- Prevent outbreak of conflicts by assisting parties in settling issues without violence (through things like early warning) * Early warning: reliable mechanism to predict where conflict will break out, but what about when? This lacks a mechanism to predict when a conflict would break out. * This logic is difficult to put into practice * 2- prevent escalation or expansion of existing conflict * This is easier; one doesn’t have to know when a conflict will break out * It is more common * Analogous to cancer: it would be ideal to prevent it, but in the meantime, it first must be stopped from spreading and minimize damage * ***From now on, think of prevention as stopping the escalation and spread of conflict, not complete prevention.***
Preventive deployment works best when: * Actors have early warning of potential violence * Actors have sufficient political will * They must be willing to pay the costs associated with preventive deployment * This works only with commitment * Fallback options are available * If a mission fails, is there a fallback plan? * Or, if conflict escalates, is there a plan to deal with increased violence? * Logic for American troops in UNPREDEP * Act as a signal of UN’s willingness to act * If US troops were killed, their response would likely be swift and deadly
UNUF: tried to take the Suarez Canal * Meant that they were worried about US intervention * (Here he used a picture/graph which I can’t recreate on Word, but it’s in the Topic 5 slides.)
“Operation untenable” * This is the worst possible outcome for a peacekeeping mission * It has limited funds and ability, no consent, and force that is too small and that doesn’t have the capacity to be effective * Ex: the intervention in Somalia * Missions that fall into this category can mitigate the situation by increasing the size/capacity of their force
Traditional peacekeeping: * Goal: to assist in creating and maintaining conditions that encourage long-term conflict resolution by the parties themselves *