Presidencial speech paper
Marco
Valdepeña
10-18-12

Wisconsin is back to a very familiar place in the partisan political wars, according to the latest poll by Marquette Law School: almost perfect parity.
President Obama leads Mitt Romney 49% to 48% in a survey of 870 likely voters taken Oct. 11-14.
Two weeks earlier, Obama led by 11 points in Marquette’s polling.
The story in this state is the same as elsewhere: Romney’s gains since the first presidential debate Oct. 3 have erased Obama’s post-convention bounce and made the race as close and unpredictable as it has been at any point in this election year.
The battle for Wisconsin has now gone through four distinct phases since mid-summer. From July to early August, Obama led by mid-single digits (averaging state surveys by different pollsters). Then Romney picked Wisconsin’s Paul Ryan as his running mate on Aug. 11 and most of Obama’s lead disappeared. Then the conventions boosted Obama, wiping out the “Ryan bounce,” giving the Democratic ticket an average lead of almost eight points in seven separate September polls. And now the Oct. 3 debate has wiped out Obama’s convention bounce. Marquette found that Romney had a two-point lead among those who watched that debate; Obama had an eight-point lead among those who didn’t.
In four Wisconsin surveys since Oct. 3 (by Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Public Policy Polling and Marquette), Obama’s leads are two, three, two and one point. The fact that