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FINANCE

TESTING SEASONALITY IN THE INDIAN
STOCK MARKET

A Project Report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Business Administration

Under the guidance of:
Dr. S.K. Tuteja

Submitted by:
Sachin Garg
F-045, MBA(FT) 2011-13

Faculty of Management Studies
University of Delhi
Delhi – 110007

CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that this project report titled “Testing Seasonality in the Indian Stock Market”, submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Business Administration, is based on my original research work under the guidance of Dr. S.K. Tuteja. The report has not been submitted elsewhere for any other purpose. All references used have
The testing on Weak Form of Efficient Market Hypothesis focuses on the study to prove the existence of return predictability. The theory states that if the market is efficient in a weak form, future share price will not be able to be predicted by the series of historical share price. For that reason, the use of technical analysis will be violated. This study tries to examine the efficiency of capital market in Indonesia, a country that is strongly believed to have a positive climate for future investment. As an emerging market, Indonesia offers higher risk premium than the developed countries. Its high number of investment and consumption are still significantly growing each year. Both of them have increased the number of GDP and pushed its economic growth. Finally, it will be interesting to discover whether or not the market in this potential country is being efficient in a weak form.
Stock Market Efficiency is an important concept, in terms of an understanding of the working of the capital markets. The efficiency of the emerging markets assumes greater importance as the trend of investments is accelerating in these markets as a result of regulatory reforms and removal of other barriers for the international equity investments. The term market efficiency is used to explain the relationship between information and share prices in the capital market literature. Fama (1970 and 1991) provides the formal definition of