Validity of efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from
UK mutual funds
M. Jibran Sheikh and Umara Noreen*
COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan .
Accepted 8 September, 2011
This research is geared towards analysing performance of the fund managers an d their market timing abilities. For the purpose of this study, sample of 50 U.K. mutual funds were selected in random. Their returns from the beginning of 1990 to the end of 2008 were used for hypotheses testing. Financial Times All Share Index was taken as a benchmark. Two widely accepted performance measurement techniques were employed, that is, Jensen alpha measure and Treynor and Mazuy market timing hypothesis. Based on the results, it is concluded that the fund managers lacked the ability to predict the market movement on consistent bases. They were unable to outperform the market or in simple words, they could not “beat the market”. Any chance of outperforming the market is merely a random chance and this cannot be done on consistent bases. An interesting thing to note is that fund managers also lacked market timing abilities which supports the efficient market hypothesis proposed by Fama. Present research has strong implications for existing and potential fund managers and individual investors in term s of measuring the performance of mutual funds.
Key words: Efficient market hypothesis, Jensen alpha, Treynor and Mazuy, gamma measure, market timing ability.
INTRODUCTION
In the last two decades, there has been a substantial growth in empirical stud ies in which academics have examining performance of mutual funds. This includes establishing whether performances of the funds have been predictable over time. U.S Mutual funds have been the main focus of these empirical studies.
Grinblatt and Titman (199 2), Hendricks et al. (1993),
Goetzmann and Ibbotson (1994), Malkiel (1995),
Brown and Goetzmann (1995) Elton et al. (1996) and
Carhart (1997) among many others, have concluded that past performances of mutual funds are very good indicator of their future p erformances. The main reason could be that mutual fund managers employ same investment strategies over and over as suggested by Gruber (1996).
Brown et al. (1999) had examined U.S hedge funds while Christopherson et al. (1998, 1999) and Carhart
(1997) examined the results of U.S pension funds.
There are various rationales for studying the
performance of these funds. Two main reasons are to find out if a mutual fund manager , in general, poses superior skills when it comes to investment. Another is to evaluate the market timing abilities of the fund managers. Carhart (1997) suggests that, almost similar findings with reference to four factor model, as fees of mutual funds, are usually dependent upon the size of assets under the control of the fund. Gruber
(1996) suggests that funds with good and consistent past performance achieve higher growth rate as they receive higher revenues in terms of fees. This notion is also backed by Sirri and Tufano (1998).
Fama (1972) further explained and described the components of investment performance. Merton
(1972) came up with mutual fund theorem and explained that for a given portfolio, the efficient frontier portfolio provides the highest expected r eturns based upon given standard deviation.
In the analysis of fund managers‟ ability, after theoretical studies proposed by significant researchers, the empirical studies have been tested for the performance of mutual fund, such as Chen et al.
(1987), Lehman and Modest (1987), Cumby and Glen
Sheikh and Noreen
(1990), Malkiel (1995) and Chen and Knez
Related Documents: Stocks: Mutual Fund and Market Timing Essay
Mutual Funds: Pros/Cons, Costs, & Growth Potential In the ever-changing financial industry, there are numerous asset classes. Once you study into an asset class, there are additional sub asset classes that can be derived; this list can run on infinitely. In the asset class of equity securities, you find Mutual funds. A Mutual fund collects funds from several investors and invests them in a potentially wide range of assets and securities. It’s a simple concept that dates back to the 1700’s. It is…
Investing in the stock market is a good way to meet which of the following savings goals?||A.||A vacation next summer||B.||A new car in 3 years||C.||College in 15 years||D.||A down payment on a house in 4 years|||2) What should you do if you don't want to spend a lot of time managing your investments?||A.||Get out of the game. Successful investing requires time and attention. If you don’t have the time to devote to it, you shouldn’t do it. ||B.||Invest in last year’s best-performing mutual fund.||C.||Invest…
RSM230 NOTES – FINAL EXAM LECTURE #1 – EQUITIES Stock Markets are Volatile Another work for equities is stocks – traded on the stock market Volatile – means that it moves around a lot Huge drop between 2011-2012 → markets were ignoring problems in the euro market and as the year progressed, there was more and more talk about Greece needing a bailout → important because they are "first in line"/indicators Investment Performance Historically stocks have the highest historic return and the greatest…
Since the late 1980's, economists have been worrying that efficient market theories don't explain behaviour in financial markets. Numerous studies provide evidence that individuals can be expected to demonstrate behavioural biases. There are two types of investors in the market; they are the sophisticated investors (i.e. equity fund managers), and individual investors. Some journals refer to sophisticated investors as “arbitrageurs” and “rational speculators” versus all other investors, or “noise…
to Zeus Asset Management. Zeus Asset Management is a fund management firm founded in 1968 in Atlanta by Tir Jerry Schneider. It serves both institutional and individual investors and with more than $1.7 million assets under management. The director of research, John Abbot, is considering adopting risk-adjusted approach in performance assessment. Zeus’s competitiveness analysis Zeus’s main competitors are the mutual funds in particular market. Compared with those competitors, Zeus has strong competitive…
Market Timing versus Dollar-Cost Averaging: Evidence based on Two Decades of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Values Kim Johnson Department of Accounting 412I Wimberly Hall University of Wisconsin-La Crosse La Crosse, WI 54601 (608) 785-6836 and Tom Krueger Department of Finance 406B Wimberly Hall University of Wisconsin-La Crosse La Crosse, WI 54601 (608) 785-6652 Submitted for Publication in the Journal of the Academy of Finance Presentation at the…
assets from the current year will be added to the operating reserve until the maximum reserve balance has been achieved. An amount should be built into the annual budget to build the operating reserve to the desired level. The operating reserve funds will be invested in accordance with the Investment Policy adopted by the Board. Earnings from the operating reserve investments will be added to the balance until the maximum reserve balance is achieved. Once the maximum balance is achieved, then…
BUFN 740: Capital Markets Topic 4 Multifactor Models and Market Efficiency (BKM 11, 12, 13) BUFN 740: Capital Markets Topic 4 1 Multifactor Asset Pricing Models CAPM is a model that can be used to (1) explain why certain firms have certain returns; and (2) estimate expected return (discount rate). But it does not work. The empirical failure of CAPM leaves room for improvement Maybe we should not use the market portfolio return as the only systematic factor – The market portfolio might…
WORKSHOP 7 ~ PERFORMANCE EVALUATION & MARKET EFFICIENCY Performance evaluation Fund performance can be compared to some benchmark or target as a way of ranking and assessing that fund. This is obviously useful to an investor who may be considering whether to invest with this fund, and can also be used internally as way of monitoring fund manager performance. Investment results need to account for both return and risk, previously we have measured these separately using for example the holding period…
Corporations can sell stock They have an unlimited life span and it can change ownership very easily Disadvantages It is very costly to establish Higher taxes for the corporation and the corporation can be taxed twice The corporation is monitored by state agencies and regulated by the state laws * c. How do corporations go public and continue to grow? What are agency problems? What is corporate governance? When a corporation continues to grow and has depleted all of its funds they tend to sell…