View Attempt 1 of 1 Title: Started: Submitted: Time spent: Midterm Exam March 14, 2011 1:11 PM March 14, 2011 3:40 PM 02:28:35 Total score adjusted by 0.0 Maximum possible score: 100
The break-even point is the volume that equates total revenue with total cost and profit is zero. Student Response True Score: 2/2 Value 100% Correct Answer True
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MT T/F Q2 Random variations component in a regression model are movements that are not predictable. Student Response True Score: 2/2 Value 100% Correct Answer True
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MT T/F Q3 Regression methods attempt to develop a mathematical relationship between the item being forecasted and factors that cause it to behave…show more content… 20/20
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13. MT P3 An internet bookstore that sells retail books had the following historical demand. Year Book Sales 1 17731 2 18329 3 19199 4 20306 5 21524 6 22381
7 22688 8 23179 Obtain a forecast for 9th year. Statistically validate the selection of the forecasting technique you used. Which technique did you use? Why? Student Response: Score: Given the observed TREND in the data and NO seasonality the method selected is Linear Regression. Forecast (9th year) = 24454 15/15
14. MT P4 Consider the following data set in answering the questions below: t Observed 1 73 2 106 3 76 4 89 5 106 6 113 7 96 8 66 9 104 10 73 11 77 12 119 13 84 14 71 15 88 16 97 17 69 18 117 19 80 20 73 a. Forecast using exponential smoothing with varying values of alpha between 0.1 and 0.9. Use steps of 0.1. Provide a table of your forecast for period 21 using different alpha values. b. Identify the alpha value that achieves the smallest value of MAD. Student Response: Score: a) See excel file sheet "MT P4" b) Alpha 0.1 gives the minimum MAD = 16.8 19/20
Comments: Please clearly indicate your answers in the space provided. The excel file serves as an appendix.
