Population-Control-Policies and their Implications for Economic Growth in China
Bachelor’s Thesis supervised by the Department of Economics at the University of Zurich Prof. Dr. Fabrizio Zilibotti

to obtain the degree of Bachelor of Arts in Economics

Author: Noemi Schramm Course of Studies: Economics Closing date: August 17, 2011

Abstract This bachelor thesis is giving an overview on previously performed research how family-planning-policies in China (explicitly the so-called One-Child-Policy) have affected economic growth since 1979 and tries to give possible predictions and forecasts on how it could affect economic growth until 2050 through critical model analysis. The Solow model gives theoretical answers but also yields
. . . . . . Upper Middle Income Economies according to World Bank . Dependency Ratios for 28 Chinese Provinces 1978 - 1998 . . Demographic Contributors to GDP Growth 2006 - 2050 with constant Capital Stock . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Forecasts according to Solow Model with dynamic Savings . Forecasts according to Solow Model with constant Savings . . 29 . 37 . 38 . 38 . 39 . 40

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Introduction

China’s growing economy is a phenomenon which has already fascinated and captivated various researchers and scientists. The surprisingly fast transition from a poorly developed country to an economy to be reckoned with has raised the question about its background and reasons. Some of the reasons for China’s development are the drastic political decisions and actions taken during the last 32 years. China has undergone essential market liberalization and opened its markets not only country-wide but also internationally. Furthermore, China has implemented strong population-control-policies to prevent a breakdown as predicted in the Malthusian model1 . The sanctions were not welcomed by everybody, especially human rights activists claimed a rigorous intrusion in personal freedom rights. But China was also given credit by development agencies for drastically improving living standards. More and more researchers analyze the impact the familyplanning-policies had in China and discover profound empirical results (see Li and Zhang (2007), Yu (2011), Crenshaw et