the base, index, and trend starting values are examined through multiple ESM methods, the basic ESM forecasting method is used to make Tuesday afternoons forecast for the next weeks demand starting Saturday through Friday. As seen in figure 2 of the four options, Basic, Trend, Seasonal, Winter’s forecasting model (Weatherford & Bodily,1990), the Basic model gives the lowest mean absolute percentage error on placing the adjusted pickup ratio data. The difference between demand and forecast is shown…
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