The Emergency Room (ER) at Northwest General (A) 1. What is your opinion of the level at which the data is being collected? What are some of the advantage and this advantage of collecting data at this level? * My opinion on the data at which the data is being collected would be very taskfull for the forecaster. The actual data should be presented and emphasize by shift in order to have an accurate forecast or the census of the number of patient and to determine the number of staff needed to meet the demand of the patients. * At this rate there were advantage and disadvantage on the way the data has been presented. One of its advantage would be the result of the forecast will be accurate or closest to the reality because the
So in the computation there were only few demands for those weeks.

3. Use at least two different forecasting models on the new data set you develop in question 2, by aggregating the original data. Compare their forecast performance and provide an evaluation.

Weight for the days
October 31
1st shift (7am – 3pm) = 27 (0.50)
2nd shift (3pm – 11pm) =25 (0.25)
3rd shift (11pm – 7am) = 20 (0.25)

F t+1 = ∑CtAt
F1st shift = 27 (0.50)+ 25 (0.25)+ 20 (0.25)
F1st shift = 13.5 + 6.25 + 5
F1st shift = 24.75

1st shift (7am – 3pm) = 24.75 (0.50)
2nd shift (3pm – 11pm) =25 (0.25)
3rd shift (11pm – 7am) = 20 (0.25)

F2nd shift = 24.75 (0.50) + 25 (0.25) + 20 (0.25)
F2nd shift = 12.38 + 6.25 + 5
F2nd shift = 23.63

1st shift (7am – 3pm) = 24.75 (0.50)
2nd shift (3pm – 11pm) =23.63 (0.25)
3rd shift (11pm – 7am) = 20 (0.25)

F3rd shift =24.75 (0.50) + 23.63 (0.25) + 20 (0.25)
F3rd shift =12.38 + 5.91 + 5
F3rd shift = 23.29

New forecast for November 1
1st shift (7am – 3pm) = 25
2nd shift (3pm – 11pm) =24
3rd shift (11pm – 7am) = 23

F t + 1 = ∑A1 n
1st shift (7am – 3pm) = 27
2nd shift (3pm – 11pm) =25
3rd shift (11pm – 7am) = 20 F1st shft=27+25+20 3 F1st shft=77/3 F1st shft=25.67 F2nd shft=25.67+25+20 3 F2nd shft=70.67/3 F2nd shft=23.5 F3rd shft=25.67+23.5+20 3 F3rd