Bill Miller and Value Trust

Background Information
Bill Miller is one of the most renowned professional fund managers. This can be proven by the outperformance of the Value Trust, which is managed by him, compared to its benchmark index, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500), for an astonishing 14 years in a row; and this marked the longest streak of success for any manager in the mutual-fund industry. By the middle of 2005, Value Trust is worth $11.2-billion.
Bill Miller’s approach to investment management was research-intensive and highly concentrated. For instance, nearly 50 percent of Value Trust’s assets were invested in just 10 large-capitalization companies. While most of Bill Miller’s investments were value stocks,
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)
There are three levels of market efficiency which were distinguished by the degree of information believed to be reflected in current securities’ prices. The weak form of efficiency maintained that all past prices for a stock were impounded into today’s price. The semistrong form of efficiency held that today’s prices reflected not only all past prices, but also all publicly available information. The strong form of efficiency held that today’s stock price reflected all the information that could be acquired through a close analysis of the company and the economy.
Many scholars argued that the sock market followed a “random walk”, where the price movements of tomorrow were essentially uncorrelated with the price movements of today. They argued that capital markets’ information was efficient, and that the insights available to any one fundamental analyst were bound to be impounded quickly into share prices. If EMH were correct and all current prices reflected the true value of the underlying securities, then arguably it would be impossible to beat the market with superior skill or intellect. “In such a market,” as one economist said, “We would observe lucky and