ANALYTICAL PAPER

AFGHANISTAN POST 2014;

By:
Waqas Sulehri

AFGHANISTAN POST 2014; IMPERATIVES, DRIVERS AND SCENARIOS

Introduction
1. Afghanistan has remained under challenging conditions since 1979 with major transitional periods almost every decade that badly affected the lives of its people. Firstly, war against former USSR, then an internal war, and lately a war along as well as against the
US-led NATO forces, which has had its effects inside Afghanistan as well as neighbourhood, particularly Pakistan. Although the latest war (post 9/11) has been a result of actions taken by non-Afghan individuals and groups , main victims have been the people of Afghanistan. With another transition approaching in 2014 when
It is pertinent to mention that many Afghan’s consider war as an opportunity due to flow of more money.

c. Security Imperatives. Following are the major security imperatives for post 2014 Afghan security situation:-

(1) Capability of ANSF. Development and training of capable ANSF comprising Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP), is considered as key to transition from US/NATO-led to Afghan-led security environment in Afghanistan. Although training timelines have been met till September 2012 , further training and conduct of joint operations with ANSF in lead, has been severely affected by ‘Green on Blue Attacks’ in the recent times. In addition to infiltration of Taliban sympathizers into ANSF ranks, less pay package ($200-300 per month), cultural tendency to remain loyal to tribal chieftain, rising strength of Taliban, low moral and ethnic divide are key factors affecting ANSF’s capability, capacity, viability and effectiveness.

(2) Taliban’s Capability. Since year 2006, Taliban have gradually consolidated their power to challenge US-led ISAF forces and ANSF. At present, majority areas in Afghanistan are not under Govt’s full control due to Taliban-led insurgency. However, in order to obtain legitimate power (unlike situation in 1994 where they challenged the tyrannical warlords to save Afghan people); Taliban